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圖表:圖4:中美經(jīng)貿(mào)往來獲益大致平衡(2009—2015年,單位:十億美元) 新華社發(fā)
中美貨物貿(mào)易差額是美國經(jīng)濟結構性問題的必然結果,也是由兩國比較優(yōu)勢和國際分工格局決定的。中美雙邊貨物貿(mào)易差額長期存在并不斷擴大,是多重客觀因素共同作用的結果,并不是中國刻意追求的結果。
第一,這是美國國內(nèi)儲蓄不足的必然結果。從國民經(jīng)濟核算角度看,一國經(jīng)常項目是盈余還是赤字,取決于該國儲蓄與投資的關系。美國經(jīng)濟的典型特征是低儲蓄、高消費,儲蓄長期低于投資,2018年第一季度,美國凈國民儲蓄率僅為1.8%。為了平衡國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟,美國不得不通過貿(mào)易赤字形式大量利用外國儲蓄,這是美國貿(mào)易逆差形成并長期存在的根本原因。自1971年以來,美國總體上處于貿(mào)易逆差狀態(tài),2017年與102個國家存在貿(mào)易逆差。美國貿(mào)易逆差是一種內(nèi)生性、結構性、持續(xù)性的經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象。美國目前對中國的貿(mào)易逆差,只是美國對全球貿(mào)易逆差的階段性、國別性反映。
The gap in China-US trade in goods is a natural outcome of the US economic structure, and a result of the two countries’ comparative strengths and the international division of labor. The persistent and growing gap in trade in goods between the two countries is a result of a number of factors, rather than China’s intent.
First, it is a natural outcome of a low savings rate in the US. From the perspective of national accounts, the balance of a country’s current account is decided by the relationship between savings and investment. The US economy is characterized by low savings and high consumption. Savings have been lower than investment for many years. In the first quarter of 2018, the US net national savings rate was as low as 1.8%. To balance its domestic economy, the US has to attract a large amount of foreign savings by trade deficit. This is the fundamental cause of the US trade deficit over the years. The US began to run trade deficits in its foreign trade in 1971, and by 2017 it was running trade deficits with 102 countries. The US trade deficit is an endogenous, structural and sustained economic phenomenon. The current trade deficit of the US with the rest of the world has shifted among its trading partners and resides with China for the time being.