第四，這是美國(guó)對(duì)華高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口管制的結(jié)果。美國(guó)在高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易方面擁有巨大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，但美國(guó)政府基于冷戰(zhàn)思維，長(zhǎng)期對(duì)華實(shí)施嚴(yán)格的出口管制，人為抑制了美國(guó)優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)品對(duì)華出口潛力，造成美企業(yè)喪失大量對(duì)華出口機(jī)會(huì)，加大了中美貨物貿(mào)易逆差。據(jù)美國(guó)卡內(nèi)基國(guó)際和平基金會(huì)2017年4月的報(bào)告分析，美國(guó)若將對(duì)華出口管制放松至對(duì)巴西的水平，美國(guó)對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差可縮減24%；如果放松至對(duì)法國(guó)的水平，美國(guó)對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差可縮減35%。由此可見(jiàn)，美國(guó)高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品對(duì)華出口的潛力遠(yuǎn)未充分發(fā)揮，美國(guó)不是不可以減少對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差，只是自己關(guān)閉了增加對(duì)華出口的大門(mén)。
Fourth, this is the consequence of US export control over high-tech products exported to China. The US boasts huge competitive strength in high-tech trade. Yet, haunted by the cold-war mentality, it imposes strict export controls on China, thereby limiting the potential of advantageous US exports, causing significant lost export opportunities, and widening its trade deficit with China. According to a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in April 2017 , if US export controls on China were relaxed to the level of those on Brazil, its deficit could be cut by 24%, and 35% if relaxed to the level of France. Evidently there remains a huge potential to be tapped in high-tech exports to China. If the US had not itself closed the door, it could well have seen its trade deficit reduced.
第五，這是美元作為主要國(guó)際貨幣的結(jié)果。二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后確立了以美元為中心的布雷頓森林體系，一方面，美國(guó)利用美元“囂張的特權(quán)”向世界各國(guó)征收“鑄幣稅”，美國(guó)印制一張百元美鈔的成本不過(guò)區(qū)區(qū)幾美分，但其他國(guó)家為獲得這張美鈔必須提供價(jià)值相當(dāng)于100美元的實(shí)實(shí)在在的商品和服務(wù)。另一方面，美元作為主要國(guó)際貨幣客觀上需要承擔(dān)為國(guó)際貿(mào)易提供清償能力的職能，美國(guó)通過(guò)逆差不斷輸出美元。美國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差背后有其深刻的利益基礎(chǔ)和國(guó)際貨幣制度根源。
此外，美國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)方法相對(duì)高估了中美貨物貿(mào)易逆差額。中美雙方的統(tǒng)計(jì)差異長(zhǎng)期存在，且差異較大。2017年，中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)對(duì)美貨物貿(mào)易順差為2758億美元，美國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)對(duì)華逆差接近3958億美元，相差1000億美元左右。由中美兩國(guó)商務(wù)部相關(guān)專(zhuān)家組成的統(tǒng)計(jì)工作組，每年就中美貿(mào)易統(tǒng)計(jì)差異進(jìn)行一次比較研究。根據(jù)該工作組測(cè)算，美國(guó)官方統(tǒng)計(jì)的對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差每年都被高估20%左右。根據(jù)中國(guó)海關(guān)和美國(guó)商務(wù)部普查局的統(tǒng)計(jì)，雙方統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果在最近十年來(lái)的走勢(shì)和變動(dòng)幅度大致相同（圖6）。引起差異的原因包括進(jìn)口價(jià)格和出口價(jià)格之間的差異、轉(zhuǎn)口貿(mào)易增值、直接貿(mào)易加價(jià)、地理轄區(qū)、運(yùn)輸時(shí)滯等。
Fifth, this is the result of the US dollar being a major global currency. The Bretton Woods system established after WWII was based on the US dollar. On the one hand, the US uses its “exorbitant privilege” to levy seignorage on all countries. For the US the cost for printing a hundred-dollar bill is no more than a few cents, but other countries will have to provide real goods and services in exchange for that note. On the other hand, as a major global currency, the US dollar supports global trade settlements, and the US supplies US dollars to the world by way of a deficit. Therefore, beneath the US trade deficit lie profound US interests and the very root of the international currency system.
In addition, US statistics exaggerate its deficit in trade in goods with China. There has been a significant and long-standing statistical divergence between China and the US. In 2017, Chinese statistics recorded a Chinese surplus of US$275.8 billion, while US statistics showed it to be US$395.8 billion, a gap of about US$100 billion. The statistical working group comprising experts from the USDOC and MOFCOM compare every year the statistics from China and the US, and estimate that the US statistics overstate the trade deficit with China by 20% every year. According to statistics from China Customs and the USDOC, the dynamics of and gap between the two statistics have been largely the same over the past decade.(Chart 6) Causes for divergence include differences between CIF and FOB prices, transit trade value-added, direct trade markup, geographical jurisdiction, and shipping time delay.
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