?。ㄒ唬┢茐亩噙呝Q(mào)易規(guī)則和國際經(jīng)濟秩序
在走向文明的歷史進程中，人類社會已普遍接受一套基于規(guī)則和信用的國際治理體系。各國無論大小強弱，均應(yīng)相互尊重、平等對話，以契約精神共同維護國際規(guī)則，這對于促進全球貿(mào)易投資、促進全球經(jīng)濟增長具有基礎(chǔ)性作用。然而，美國政府近期采取了一系列違背甚至破壞現(xiàn)行多邊貿(mào)易規(guī)則的不當(dāng)做法，嚴重損害了現(xiàn)行國際經(jīng)濟秩序。美國政府多次在公開場合抨擊世界貿(mào)易組織規(guī)則及其運行機制，拒絕支持多邊貿(mào)易體制，消極參與全球經(jīng)濟治理，造成2017年和2018年亞太經(jīng)合組織貿(mào)易部長會議均未在支持多邊貿(mào)易體制問題上達成一致立場。特別是美國政府不同意將“反對貿(mào)易保護主義”寫入部長聲明，遭到亞太經(jīng)合組織其他成員一致反對。美國猛烈抨擊世界貿(mào)易組織上訴機構(gòu)，還數(shù)次阻撓上訴機構(gòu)啟動甄選程序，導(dǎo)致世界貿(mào)易組織上訴機構(gòu)人員不足，爭端解決機制瀕臨癱瘓。
1. Such measures undermine the multilateral trade rules and the international economic order
In the advance toward civilization, humanity has widely accepted an international governance system based on rules and credibility. Countries, big or small, strong or weak, should respect each other, engage in equal-footed dialogue and jointly safeguard international rules in the spirit of contract. This is fundamental to promoting global trade and investment and boosting global growth. However, the recent steps taken by the US administration that are contrary and even destructive to the existing multilateral trade rules seriously undermine the current international economic order. The US administration has issued open criticisms of the rules and operation mechanism of the WTO on various occasions. It has refused to endorse the multilateral trading system, and at the same time has adopted a negative attitude toward global economic governance, which caused the failure of the APEC Trade Ministers Meetings, in both 2017 and 2018, to reach consensus on supporting the multilateral trading system. In particular, the US administration’s objection to writing “opposition to trade protectionism” into the ministers’ statement was met with opposition from every other APEC member. The US lashed out at the WTO appellate body and repeatedly blocked the appointment procedures of the body, resulting in an understaffed appellate body and pushing the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism to the brink of paralysis.
?。ǘ┳璧K國際貿(mào)易和全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇
隨著全球化進程發(fā)展，各國經(jīng)濟基于經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系的相互關(guān)聯(lián)度越來越高，貿(mào)易已成為全球經(jīng)濟增長的重要動力。根據(jù)世界銀行統(tǒng)計，全球經(jīng)濟對貿(mào)易增長的依存度已從1960年的17.5%上升到2017年的51.9%（圖13）。
圖表：圖13：全球經(jīng)濟對貿(mào)易的依存度（1960—2017年） 新華社發(fā)
當(dāng)前，全球經(jīng)濟剛剛走出國際金融危機的陰影，回升態(tài)勢并不穩(wěn)固。美國政府大范圍挑起貿(mào)易摩擦，阻礙國際貿(mào)易，勢必會對世界經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇造成負面影響。為了遏制美國的貿(mào)易保護主義行為，其他國家不得不采取反制措施，這將導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)貿(mào)秩序紊亂，阻礙全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇，殃及世界各國企業(yè)和居民，使全球經(jīng)濟落入“衰退陷阱”（表6）。
1. Such measures obstruct world trade and the recovery of the global economy
As globalization moves forward, the economies of the world are increasingly connected through trade. Trade has become a major engine for global growth. According to the World Bank, the international economy’s dependence on trade rose from 17.5 percent in 1960 to 51.9 percent in 2017 (Chart 13).
Chart 13: World Economy’s Dependence on Trade (1960-2017)
The global economy has just emerged from the shadow of the 2008 global financial crisis and the recovery is yet to be solidly-based. In this context, the US administration’s actions to instigate large-scale trade frictions and impede the flow of world trade will undoubtedly affect the recovery of the global economy. In order to mitigate the protectionist moves of the US, countries are left with no choice but to take countermeasures. This will disrupt the world economic and trade order, and hold back global recovery, damaging the interests of companies and people of all countries and pushing the global economy back into recession (Table 6).
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