一、國(guó)際安全形勢(shì)
當(dāng)今世界正經(jīng)歷百年未有之大變局，世界多極化、經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化、社會(huì)信息化、文化多樣化深入發(fā)展，和平、發(fā)展、合作、共贏的時(shí)代潮流不可逆轉(zhuǎn)，但國(guó)際安全面臨的不穩(wěn)定性不確定性更加突出，世界并不太平。
國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略格局深刻演變
I. International Security Situation
The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. As economic globalization, the information society, and cultural diversification develop in an increasingly multi-polar world, peace, development and win-win cooperation remain the irreversible trends of the times. Nonetheless, there are prominent destabilizing factors and uncertainties in international security. The world is not yet a tranquil place.
The International Strategic Landscape Is Going Through Profound Changes
國(guó)際力量加快分化組合，新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家力量持續(xù)上升，戰(zhàn)略力量對(duì)比此消彼長(zhǎng)、更趨均衡，促和平、求穩(wěn)定、謀發(fā)展已成為國(guó)際社會(huì)的普遍訴求，和平力量的上升遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)因素的增長(zhǎng)。但是，霸權(quán)主義、強(qiáng)權(quán)政治、單邊主義時(shí)有抬頭，地區(qū)沖突和局部戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)持續(xù)不斷，國(guó)際安全體系和秩序受到?jīng)_擊。
As the realignment of international powers accelerates and the strength of emerging markets and developing countries keeps growing, the configuration of strategic power is becoming more balanced. The pursuit of peace, stability and development has become a universal aspiration of the international community with forces for peace predominating over elements of war. However, international security system and order are undermined by growing hegemonism, power politics, unilateralism and constant regional conflicts and wars.
國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略競(jìng)爭(zhēng)呈上升之勢(shì)。美國(guó)調(diào)整國(guó)家安全戰(zhàn)略和國(guó)防戰(zhàn)略，奉行單邊主義政策，挑起和加劇大國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，大幅增加軍費(fèi)投入，加快提升核、太空、網(wǎng)絡(luò)、導(dǎo)彈防御等領(lǐng)域能力，損害全球戰(zhàn)略穩(wěn)定。北約持續(xù)擴(kuò)員，加強(qiáng)在中東歐地區(qū)軍事部署，頻繁舉行軍事演習(xí)。俄羅斯強(qiáng)化核、非核戰(zhàn)略遏制能力，努力維護(hù)戰(zhàn)略安全空間和自身利益。歐盟獨(dú)立維護(hù)自身安全的傾向增強(qiáng)，加快推進(jìn)安全和防務(wù)一體化建設(shè)。
International strategic competition is on the rise. The US has adjusted its national security and defense strategies, and adopted unilateral policies. It has provoked and intensified competition among major countries, significantly increased its defense expenditure, pushed for additional capacity in nuclear, outer space, cyber and missile defense, and undermined global strategic stability. NATO has continued its enlargement, stepped up military deployment in Central and Eastern Europe, and conducted frequent military exercises. Russia is strengthening its nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities for strategic containment, and striving to safeguard its strategic security space and interests. The European Union (EU) is accelerating its security and defense integration to be more independent in its own security.
全球和地區(qū)性安全問(wèn)題持續(xù)增多。國(guó)際軍控和裁軍遭遇挫折，軍備競(jìng)賽趨勢(shì)顯現(xiàn)。防止大規(guī)模殺傷性武器擴(kuò)散形勢(shì)錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜，國(guó)際防擴(kuò)散機(jī)制受到實(shí)用主義和雙重標(biāo)準(zhǔn)危害，面臨新的挑戰(zhàn)。極端主義、恐怖主義不斷蔓延，網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全、生物安全、海盜活動(dòng)等非傳統(tǒng)安全威脅日益凸顯。伊朗核問(wèn)題解決出現(xiàn)波折，敘利亞問(wèn)題政治解決仍面臨困難。各國(guó)安全的交融性、關(guān)聯(lián)性、互動(dòng)性不斷增強(qiáng)，沒(méi)有哪一個(gè)國(guó)家能夠獨(dú)立應(yīng)對(duì)或獨(dú)善其身。
亞太安全形勢(shì)總體穩(wěn)定
Global and regional security issues are on the increase. International arms control and disarmament efforts have suffered setbacks, with growing signs of arms races. The non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction remains problematic. The international non-proliferation regime is compromised by pragmatism and double standards, and hence faces new challenges. Extremism and terrorism keep spreading. Non-traditional security threats involving cyber security, bio-security and piracy are becoming more pronounced. The Iranian nuclear issue has taken an unexpected turn, and there is no easy political solution to the Syrian issue. The security of individual countries is becoming increasingly intertwined, interlinked and interactive. No country can respond alone or stand aloof.
The Asia-Pacific Security Situation Remains Generally Stable
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